研究发现，海上风能降低新英格兰的能源成本
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一个新分析由北卡罗来纳州立大学的研究人员领导，海上风能可以帮助新英格兰六个州平均降低批发电价，而在极端冬季风暴中，风力涡轮机的风险相对较低。
尽管在冬季风暴期间非常高风速可能会导致涡轮机暂时离线，但他们发现，突然损失风力的风险最大的是夏季风速最低。这些发现，发表在期刊上活力, could help utilities, policymakers and consumers in New England determine what to expect in terms of price and reliability from adding offshore wind power in the region.
“Adding offshore wind to this market reduces wholesale prices for electricity overall and reduces emissions pretty consistently,” said乔丹·克恩（Jordan Kern），北卡罗来纳州林业和环境资源助理教授。“当我们考虑这些糟糕的冬季风暴时，由于高风速过高，您会失去风能时，案件很少，即使那样，它也不会破坏系统或对市场造成冲击。我们确定的一个更大的问题是，当夏季真的很热，风速很低时该怎么办。”
有计划在新英格兰增加额外的风力发电能力 -拟议的新发电的60％would come from offshore and onshore wind farms. Already, the region is home to the nation’s first major offshore wind farm: a 30-megawatt farm off the cost of Rhode Island. And while wind power is expected to be a “saving grace” during extreme winter storms, researchers wanted to look at whether storms could also disrupt power supplies and drive up prices since turbines will shut off at wind speeds over 55 miles per hour.
克恩说：“陆基风力构成了美国的所有风能。”“其中很多位于该国中部。但是，如果您住在东海岸，土地很昂贵，风速较低。那时，离岸看起来不错。”
在分析中，研究人员使用了电网模型来模拟新英格兰六个州的额外风能对电力价格的影响 - 康涅狄格州，缅因州，马萨诸塞州，新罕布什尔州，罗德岛州和佛蒙特州 - 在极端的冷酷无情的情况下2017年12月至2018年1月。在风暴期间，由于“炸弹”旋风风暴，电力需求和天然气价格飙升。
他们发现了海上风力发电decreased the severity of price spikes during the cold snap, even though there was a sudden loss of power when the turbines cut off on one day due to the cyclone storm.
On average, they found wholesale prices would have dropped by $28.81 megawatts per hour if there had been an additional 4,000 megawatts of offshore wind power online during the storm.
“We were looking to see if there would be blackouts because of this sudden lack of energy from offshore wind power plants, but we didn’t see a case where the system went into a blackout in any of the scenarios we evaluated,” said the study’s lead authorKerem Ziya Akdemir, a graduate student in forestry and environmental resources at NC State. “Most of the time during winter weather events, having wind is a good thing because the wind speeds are high. Only rarely did the wind speed get so high that the wind turbines shut off completely.”
They also looked whether adding 800 or 4,000 megawatts worth of offshore wind power would impact the price of power across 69 years between 1949 and 2018, compared to if there were no additional offshore wind capacity added. They found that additional wind power lowered the average wholesale price of electricity across the study period.
阿克德米尔说：“我们观察到，如果我们增加该地区的海上风能，通常批发价格将降低。”“在一两个实例中，我们观察到非常高的价格，因为过度的风速导致涡轮机切断，导致该地区的风力突然损失，但是这些涡轮机对新英格兰的影响没有很大的严重后果电网。”
在添加最多风能的情况下，在关闭涡轮机的切口事件中，价格平均每兆瓦时平均每兆瓦时增加89美分。
Cut-out events from excessive wind speeds were also not the cause of the highest prices in the analysis. The most frequent and severe price increases happened during summer months when people use a lot of power to cool their homes and wind speeds were low.
“In the wintertime, there’s a little bit less demand for electricity than in the summer, so there’s some other power plants that can kick on and replace the wind quickly,” Kern said.
The study looked at wholesale prices of electricity, and the researchers said the question of how wind generation could impact the cost of power for consumers is still open.
“The findings overall suggest that adding wind offshore to the system almost all the time will result in lower market prices and lower emissions,” Kern said. “Whether that means that consumers will pay less for electricity is a much trickier question. It’s not cheap to build offshore wind farms; you have to build them in the ocean. Consumers could have to pay for that.”
这项研究是“在极端冬季风暴期间因风能损失评估新英格兰批发电力市场的风险，”活力。该研究由塔夫茨大学的乔纳森·拉蒙塔尼（Jonathan Lamontagne）合着。该研究由美国能源部科学局资助，作为多部门动态，地球和环境系统建模计划研究的一部分。
-oleniacz-
Note to authors：The abstract follows.
“Assessing risks for New England’s wholesale electricity market from wind power losses during extreme winter storms”
作者：Kerem Ziya Akdemir，Jordan D. Kern和Jonathan Lamontagne
出版online in活力2022年4月4日
doi：10.1016/j.energy.2022.123886
抽象的：In the United States, New England faces difficulties from severe winter weather, during which its power grid simultaneously experiences high natural gas prices and electricity demand, leading to spikes in wholesale electricity prices. In recent years, a significant amount of offshore wind power capacity has been planned for the region, and previous studies have suggested the presence of offshore wind could lower emissions and market prices during cold snaps. However, there has been limited consideration of potential wind power losses during extreme winter weather due to excessive wind speeds, which could lead to sudden losses of wind power. This aim of this study is to quantify risks associated with sudden wind power losses during extreme winter weather, especially the potential for these events to cause spikes in the wholesale electricity price. Results suggest that these so-called风力涡轮机与由于电力需求更高时风速和风速突然下降，“切入”事件可能代表着较小的风险。总体而言，在极端冬季天气中拥有海上风能的好处似乎超过了与风速过高有关的相对罕见的切割事件相关的风险。
