Key Takeaways:
- 气候变化正在延长夏季，热浪变得越来越频繁和强烈。
- 大部分电网都在老化，使其容易受到部分停电的影响，并在热浪期间滚动停电。
- 北卡罗来纳州不太可能导致的电力停电，尽管该州的电网的未来仍然不确定，因为它过渡到可再生能源。
Extreme heat is testing North Carolina’s power grid like never before, with triple-digit temperatures causing residents to consume record-breaking amounts of electricity this summer.
杜克能源公司（Duke Energy）最近宣布，北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州的客户创造了新的夏季记录，以供电力使用21,086兆瓦on June 15, 2022.
The announcement comes at a time when heat waves are sweeping across the United States, triggering power outages in several parts of the country due to increased demand for electricity.
“极端热量会导致需求激增，因为每个人都在使用空调保持凉爽。”Jordan Kern，北卡罗来纳州林业和环境资源的助理教授。
热浪是一个异常炎热的天气，通常持续两天或更多天。
Kern, who conducts vulnerability assessments of power grids, added that extreme heat can overwhelm transmission lines and even cause them to sag — a result of the metal inside them expanding.
这些因素加上需求激增，可能导致部分中断和停电 - 当公用事业公司暂时关闭电源以防止电网过载的电源时。
Unfortunately, power grids across the country will face even more demand for electricity in the coming decades as climate change is extending the summer season and making heat waves more frequent and intense.
Our Warming World
研究表明，美国和北半球其他地区可能会持续将近六个月到2100年，如果温室气体排放持续不受限制。
It’s also well established that summer temperatures are increasing, with the number of年热浪in the U.S. increasing from two per year in the 1960s to six per year during the 2010s.
北卡罗来纳州气候研究研究所项目的一份报告，该州的年平均温度可能从2至10华氏度2100度，取决于温室气体排放。
The average summer temperatures for the Triad region alone have already increased bynearly 3 degrees根据非营利组织气候中心分析的数据，华氏自1970年以来。
据克恩说，随着温度的升高，该国某些地区的停电风险可能会增加。研究表明停电已经increased by 60%自2015年以来。
“If we use future climate projections to question whether the grid can serve electricity to people in 10 to 15 years, the answer is sometimes no,” Kern said. “But that doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll run out of electricity.”
克恩补充说，公用事业公司将需要建立额外的基础设施，以增强电力网格，以防止温度升高，尤其是夏季电力负载可能可能增加15％在未来的几十年。
Blackouts on the Horizon
The U.S. electrical system consists of three major grids that span the lower 48 states: the Eastern Interconnection, the Western Interconnection, and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.
在一个最近的评估，美国土木工程师学会给美国电气系统提供了C级，并指出其大部分基础设施正在老化，并且在很大程度上无法承受极端天气事件。
克恩说，即使是美国太平洋（例如西北太平洋）的温带地区，随着年平均温度升高，极端热量很少的地方也可能面临网格可靠性问题。
“居住在这些地区的人们不太依赖空调。但是，如果在夏天，热浪越来越普遍，越来越多的人可能会将其安装在他们的家中。”克恩说。“这最终将使这些网格张开，因为需求大于供应。”
Last year, when a heat wave brought triple-digit temperatures to the Pacific Northwest, Avista, a utility company that supplies power to 340,000 people in eastern Washington and northern Idaho,启动滚动停电.
Rolling blackouts are often initiated by utility companies to maintain power grids when all other emergency measures have failed to avoid a total shutdown, which can be deadly in the event of a heat wave.
热浪是most commoncauses of weather-related deaths in the U.S. In fact, the historic heat wave in the Pacific Northwest killednearly 200 people在俄勒冈州和华盛顿。
克恩说：“人们在热浪中失去电是危险的。”“可靠的电网可能是生与死之间的区别。”
Powering into the Future
North Carolina has never had to implement rolling blackouts, and while the state is experiencing warmer-than-average temperatures, it remains unlikely under current conditions, according to Kern.
Kern said the state’s utilities own and operate a wide array of power plants that rely on a combination of seasonally-available resources, such as coal and natural gas, to provide a stable supply of electricity.
Additionally, these utilities conduct short- and long-range planning to ensure they can meet increasing electricity demand, accounting for everything from population increases to climate change.
In the case of heat waves and other extreme weather events, many utilities are upgrading infrastructure across the grid and implementing “hardening” measures to protect electrical equipment, according to Kern.
克恩说：“我们在北卡罗来纳州拥有非常可靠且相对实惠的电力服务。”“这确实是我们机构的证明。”
但是,将来时e of North Carolina’s power grid remains uncertain, especially as utilities begin developing plans to achieve the state’s requirement ofcarbon-neutral electricity generation by 2050.
While solar and other renewable energy sources play an important role in offsetting greenhouse gas emissions,Kern’s researchshows they’re also susceptible to supply fluctuations caused by extreme weather events.
克恩说：“毫无疑问，如果我们想应对气候变化，我们需要脱碳。”“但是未来更频繁和严重的热浪的潜力可能会影响我们使用的可再生能源的类型。”
克恩补充说，需要进行更多的研究，以更好地了解极端天气对可再生能源的影响，尤其是在美国东南部等地区。
同时，北卡罗来纳州的电网可能会过渡到很大程度上的碳中性系统，公用事业只依靠供应紧急情况下的化石燃料，例如天然气。
“When you think about grids that are exposed to more frequent and more severe weather, there may have to be some compromise between reliability and carbon goals to make sure that people don’t suffer,” Kern said.
这篇文章是originally publishedin College of Natural Resources News.
